Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 13 Captaincy metrics blog. Last week was a disaster week for Popular Captains with Haaland, Mateta, Salah, Mbeumo all blanking and Saka getting only DEFCON . This week, Haaland has a good fixture at home vs Leeds while Salah too has a good game(atleast on paper) vs West Ham(A). Saka has a more difficult fixture vs Chelsea(A). Rogers and Thiago are also in consideration with both form and fixtures on their side. Let’s see who comes out on top of the captaincy metrics.
This season, we have an 8/12 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts(26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 = 184 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
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FPL GW13 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW13 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom of the Crowd
Haaland, with an amazing fixture vs LEE(H) comes up first in the captaincy poll as expected with 84% of the votes. Thiago who scored last week but also missed a penalty is a distant 2nd with an amazing fixture vs Burnley(H). Saka and Morgan Rogers(who got a brace last week) are joint 3rd. Salah rounds up the Captaincy Metrics coming in 5th in the votes.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks
Igor Thiago tops the table with 17 shots in the box, 12 Big chances, and an xG of 5.32 in the last six games. The only caveat is that the penalties contribute to most of these numbers as he has had 4 penalties during this time scoring 3 of them.
Haaland is 2nd with an xG of 5.21 in the last six games. He’s also had 11 big chances and 21 shots inside the box.
Saka is 3rd with an xG of 2.15 in the last six games, he’s also had 4 big chances and created 14 chances which is the 2nd highest amongst these five players during the period.
Mo Salah is 4th with an xG of 2.12 in the last six games and has had 5 big chances & 16 goal attempts in the box. He’s also created 16 chances which is the 2nd Highest among all players in the entire league during this time.
Morgan Rogers is 5th with an xG of just 0.71 in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Arsenal take the top spot and have registered 11.82 xG in the last six games. Gunners have had 70 shots inside the box and 20 big chances during the period.
Liverpool have registered 10.72 xG in the last six games and take up the second spot. They have had 64 shots inside the box and 19 big chances.
Manchester City are 3rd in the table with an xG of 10.63. The Blues have also registered 71 goal attempts in the box(Highest among all these teams) and have had 18 big chances in their last six games.
Brentford are 4th in the table with an xG of 10.62 during the last 6 matches. They have 58 Shots inside the box and 21 Big chances during this run.
Aston Villa are 5th in the table with an xG of 5.98 and have had 7 big chances and 44 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL GW13 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW13
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Manchester City are Top in this table. Liverpool have 52% odds to get >2 Goals this Gameweek vs LEE which is the Highest among all Teams. They have 92% odds to get atleast one goal which is the also the Highest.
Brentford are at second with 85% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs BUR(H) which is the 2nd Highest and 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW13 which is also the 2nd Highest.
Liverpool are 3rd and have 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against West Ham(A).
Aston Villa are 4th with a 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Wolves(H).
Arsenal are last with 75% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and only a 22% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Chelsea(A) which is a difficult fixture.
Further Read: Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 74% and a 8.6 points projection in FPL Gameweek 13 vs Leeds(H).
Salah is second and has an anytime returns projection of 60% and a 6.5 points projection vs West Ham(A).
Saka and Thiago are Joint 3rd here. Saka has an anytime returns projection of 49% and a points projection of 6.0 vs Chelsea(A). Thiago has an anytime returns projection of 53% and a points projection of 5.6 against Burnley(H).
Rogers is 5th with the Villa attacker having an anytime returns projection of 40% and a points projection of 4.7 against Wolves(H).
Further Read: FPL GW13 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 13 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics with a cumulative rank factor of 7 this week. Thiago finishes 2nd with a CRF of 10, followed by Salah who is close and finishes 3rd with a CRF of 11. Saka finishes 4th with a CRF of 12 and Rogers finishes last with a CRF of 19.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW13
FPL GW13 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Top FPL Gameweek 13 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW13 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 13 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW13 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
FPL GW13 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Best GWs to Use Your Free Hit & Triple Captain Chips (GW13–19)
FPL GW13 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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