Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 10 Captaincy metrics blog. Haaland blanked for the first time last gameweek and will be up against Bournemouth this week. Mbeumo, who scored a brace, is also a good captain choice this week. Arsenal duo Gabriel and Saka will be up against Burnley and are strong alternative captain options to Haaland. Let’s see who comes out on top of the captaincy metrics.
This season, we have a 7/9 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts(26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 = 150 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
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FPL GW10 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW10 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom of the Crowd
Haaland, despite blanking last week, comes up first in the captaincy poll with 40% of the votes and will be playing Bournemouth(H). Mbeumo, who has three goals in the last two games, is 2nd with 13% of the votes and will be facing Nottingham Forest(A). Arsenal duo Saka & Gabriel have 11% and 9% votes respectively and will be facing Burnley(A). Woltemade is 5th with 8% of votes and will be up against struggling West Ham(A).
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 10 Captain picks
Haaland tops the table without any surprise, with 23 shots in the box, 12 big chances, and an xG of 5.05 in the last six games.
Woltemade is 2nd with an xG of 3.04 in the last six games. He’s also had 6 big chances and 12 shots inside the box. West Ham have conceded 41 headed goal attempts, the most amongst all teams. Woltemade had two headed goals already the joint highest amongst all players making it a great matchup.
Mbeumo is 3rd with an xG of 1.81 in the last six games, he’s also had 5 big chances and created 7 chances.
Saka is 4th with an xG of 1.16 in the last six games and has had 2 big chances & 8 goal attempts in the box. He’s also created 12 chances, which is the highest amongst the six players during the period.
Gabriel is 5th as expected with an xG of 0.76 in the last six games. He’s, however, had three big chances in the last six games, which is an impressive number for a defender. Burnley have conceded 43 goal attempts from set plays the 3rd highest in the league. Arsenal have scored 9 goals from set plays the most by any team so far & they’re also top for shots from set plays(54).
Further Read: Top FPL GW10 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW10 Deadline
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Arsenal have registered 10.33 xG in the last six games and take up the top spot. They have had 78 shots inside the box and 20 big chances during the period.
Man City have registered 9.94 xG in the last six games and take up the 3rd spot. They have had 65 shots inside the box and 21 big chances during the period.
Man United are 4th in the table with an xG of 9.91. The Reds have also registered 50 goal attempts in the box and have had 20 big chances in their last six games.
Newcastle are 5th in the table with an xG of 9.35 and have had 13 big chances and 49 goal attempts in the box.
Further Read: FPL GW10 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW10
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal are top with a 87% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW10 against Burnley(A).
Man City are 3rd and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Bournemouth(H)
Newcastle are only 4th with a 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against West Ham(A).
Man United are last with 78% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 27% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Nottingham Forest(A).
Further Read: FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 72% and a 8.1 points projection in FPL Gameweek 10 vs Bournemouth(H)
Saka is second and has an anytime returns projection of 54% and a 6.2 points projection vs Burnley(A)
Gabriel is also second with an anytime returns projection of 57% and a points projection of 5.9 vs Burnley(A)
Woltemade is fourth with an anytime returns projection of 45% and a points projection of 4.7 against West Ham(A).
Mbeumo is also 4th with the Man United attacker having an anytime returns projection of 43% and a points projection of 5.2 against Nottingham Forest(A).
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 10 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland and Saka are both tied with a cumulative rank factor of 8 this week. Gabriel is 2nd with a CRF of 9, ahead of Woltemade, who has a CRF of 15 this week, and Mbeumo is last with a CRF of 16.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW10
FPL GW10 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW10 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW10 Deadline
FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW10 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 10 of the 2025/26 FPL Season?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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